Polymarket and Kalshi are prediction markets, sites where people can bet on virtually anything, from the outcome of a sports matchup or an election to the date of Taylor Swift’s wedding. Once a niche phenomenon, the platforms were first embraced by political junkies who wanted to bet on the presidential election. Now prediction markets are everywhere, an unavoidable presence in American politics and culture. The amount of money flowing onto the platforms has skyrocketed. Nearly $12 billion was traded on Kalshi and Polymarket in December, up more than 400 percent from a year earlier, according to data from Piper Sandler, an investment bank. The companies raised billions from investors last year, making them some of the tech industry’s most promising start-ups. Several states are battling the prediction markets in federal courts, arguing that the sites should be required to follow rules that apply to traditional gambling companies. “The states are saying, ‘This is gambling, and you have to follow our licensing and regulation,’” said Andrew Kim, a lawyer at Goodwin who has tracked the litigation. “You don’t have a license — get out of our state.’” That dispute could eventually reach the Supreme Court. In the meantime, business is booming.
Read the New York Times article for more.