Global obesity drug M&A transactions reached $25bn in 2025, but the number of deals slimmed down, with 13 transactions signed compared to more than 20 each year in 2022-2024, Mergermarket data shows. This dynamic points to Big Pharma narrowing its focus on a few high-conviction, validated assets in the sector, said Arvin Abraham, partner at Goodwin. “The market champions are getting a ton of funding and selling at incredible prices,” Abraham said. Only a year ago, weight-loss medications – spearheaded by Novo Nordisk’s and Eli Lilly’s injectable GLP-1 blockbuster drugs – were still a novel category, and investors were underwriting risks around the unknown. Now that the sector is more mature, there is more certainty that it is a sustainable market, Abraham said. Instead of merely trying to enter the space, companies are focused on improving their competitive position, he argued. Its portfolio represents various next-generation classes of weight-loss drugs: injectables that are administered less frequently, alternative mechanisms of action to the GLP-1 blockbuster drugs, and drugs in pill form. These are the types of targets that will be attractive to acquirors, alongside novel administration mechanisms such as implantables, Abraham said. “The market is moving from the first-generation category to second-generation portfolio shaping, with unique combinations of drugs with better delivery mechanisms and side effect profiles,” Abraham said.
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